Estimating underreporting of leprosy in Brazil using a Bayesian approach.

BACKGROUND: Leprosy remains concentrated among the poorest communities in low-and middle-income countries and it is one of the primary infectious causes of disability. Although there have been increasing advances in leprosy surveillance worldwide, leprosy underreporting is still common and can hinder decision-making regarding the distribution of financial and health resources and thereby limit the effectiveness of interventions. In this study, we estimated the proportion of unreported cases of leprosy in Brazilian microregions. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using data collected between 2007 to 2015 from each of the 557 Brazilian microregions, we applied a Bayesian hierarchical model that used the presence of grade 2 leprosy-related physical disabilities as a direct indicator of delayed diagnosis and a proxy for the effectiveness of local leprosy surveillance program. We also analyzed some relevant factors that influence spatial variability in the observed mean incidence rate in the Brazilian microregions, highlighting the importance of socioeconomic factors and how they affect the levels of underreporting. We corrected leprosy incidence rates for each Brazilian microregion and estimated that, on average, 33,252 (9.6%) new leprosy cases went unreported in the country between 2007 to 2015, with this proportion varying from 8.4% to 14.1% across the Brazilian States. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The magnitude and distribution of leprosy underreporting were adequately explained by a model using Grade 2 disability as a marker for the ability of the system to detect new missing cases. The percentage of missed cases was significant, and efforts are warranted to improve leprosy case detection. Our estimates in Brazilian microregions can be used to guide effective interventions, efficient resource allocation, and target actions to mitigate transmission.

Conditional Cash Transfer Program and Leprosy Incidence: Analysis of 12.9 Million Families From the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort.

Leprosy is a neglected tropical disease predominately affecting poor and marginalized populations. To test the hypothesis that poverty-alleviating policies might be associated with reduced leprosy incidence, we evaluated the association between the Brazilian Bolsa Familia (BFP) conditional cash transfer program and new leprosy case detection using linked records from 12,949,730 families in the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort (2007-2014). After propensity score matching BFP beneficiary to nonbeneficiary families, we used Mantel-Haenszel tests and Poisson regressions to estimate incidence rate ratios for new leprosy case detection and secondary endpoints related to operational classification and leprosy-associated disabilities at diagnosis. Overall, cumulative leprosy incidence was 17.4/100,000 person-years at risk (95% CI: 17.1, 17.7) and markedly higher in "priority" (high-burden) versus "nonpriority" (low-burden) municipalities (22.8/100,000 person-years at risk, 95% confidence interval (CI): 22.2, 23.3, compared with 14.3/100,000 person-years at risk, 95% CI: 14.0, 14.7). After matching, BFP participation was not associated with leprosy incidence overall (incidence rate ratio (IRR)Poisson = 0.97, 95% CI: 0.90, 1.04) but was associated with lower leprosy incidence when restricted to families living in high-burden municipalities (IRRPoisson = 0.86, 95% CI: 0.77, 0.96). In high-burden municipalities, the association was particularly pronounced for paucibacillary cases (IRRPoisson = 0.82, 95% CI: 0.68, 0.98) and cases with leprosy-associated disabilities (IRRPoisson = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.65, 0.97). These findings provide policy-relevant evidence that social policies might contribute to ongoing leprosy control efforts in high-burden communities.

Effect of a conditional cash transfer programme on leprosy treatment adherence and cure in patients from the nationwide 100 Million Brazilian Cohort: a quasi-experimental study.

BACKGROUND: Indirect financial costs and barriers to health-care access might contribute to leprosy treatment non-adherence. We estimated the association of the Brazilian conditional cash transfer programme, the Programa Bolsa Família (PBF), on leprosy treatment adherence and cure in patients in Brazil. METHODS: In this quasi-experimental study, we linked baseline demographic and socioeconomic information for individuals who entered the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort between Jan 1, 2007, and Dec 31, 2014, with the PBF payroll database and the Information System for Notifiable Diseases, which includes nationwide leprosy registries. Individuals were eligible for inclusion if they had a household member older than 15 years and had not received PBF aid or been diagnosed with leprosy before entering the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort; they were excluded if they were partial receivers of PBF benefits, had missing data, or had a monthly per-capita income greater than BRL200 (US$50). Individuals who were PBF beneficiaries before leprosy diagnosis were matched to those who were not beneficiaries through propensity-score matching (1:1) with replacement on the basis of baseline covariates, including sex, age, race or ethnicity, education, work, income, place of residence, and household characteristics. We used logistic regression to assess the average treatment effect on the treated of receipt of PBF benefits on leprosy treatment adherence (six or more multidrug therapy doses for paucibacillary cases or 12 or more doses for multibacillary cases) and cure in individuals of all ages. We stratified our analysis according to operational disease classification (paucibacillary or multibacillary). We also did a subgroup analysis of paediatric leprosy restricted to children aged up to 15 years. FINDINGS: We included 11 456 new leprosy cases, of whom 8750 (76·3%) had received PBF before diagnosis and 2706 (23·6%) had not. Overall, 9508 (83·0%) patients adhered to treatment and 10 077 (88·0%) were cured. After propensity score matching, receiving PBF before diagnosis was associated with adherence to treatment (OR 1·22, 95% CI 1·01-1·48) and cure (1·26, 1·01-1·58). PBF receipt did not significantly improve treatment adherence (1·37, 0·98-1·91) or cure (1·12, 0·75-1·67) in patients with paucibacillary leprosy. For patients with multibacillary disease, PBF beneficiaries had better treatment adherence (1·37, 1·08-1·74) and cure (1·43, 1·09-1·90) than non-beneficiaries. In the propensity score-matched analysis in 2654 children younger than 15 years with leprosy, PBF exposure was not associated with leprosy treatment adherence (1·55, 0·89-2·68) or cure (1·57, 0·83-2·97). INTERPRETATION: Our results suggest that being a beneficiary of the PBF, which facilitates cash transfers and improved access to health care, is associated with greater leprosy multidrug therapy adherence and cure in multibacillary cases. These results are especially relevant for patients with multibacillary disease, who are treated for a longer period and have lower cure rates than those with paucibacillary disease. FUNDING: CONFAP/ESRC/MRC/BBSRC/CNPq/FAPDF-Doenças Negligenciadas, the UK Medical Research Council, the Wellcome Trust, and Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior-Brazil (CAPES).

Human Genetic Susceptibility of Leprosy Recurrence.

Host genetic susceptibility to leprosy has been intensively investigated over the last decades; however, there are no studies on the role of genetic variants in disease recurrence. A previous initiative identified three recurrent cases of leprosy for which none of the M. leprae strains, as obtained in the first and the second diagnosis, had any known genomic variants associated to resistance to Multidrug therapy; in addition, whole genome sequencing indicated that the same M. leprae was causing two out of the three recurrences. Thus, these individuals were suspected of being particularly susceptible to M. leprae infection, either as relapse or reinfection. To verify this hypothesis, 19 genetic markers distributed across 11 loci (14 genes) classically associated with leprosy were genotyped in the recurrent and in three matching non-recurrent leprosy cases. An enrichment of risk alleles was observed in the recurrent cases, suggesting the existence of a particularly high susceptibility genetic profile among leprosy patients predisposing to disease recurrence.

Mycobacterium leprae-Specific Antibodies in Multibacillary Leprosy Patients Decrease During and After Treatment With Either the Regular 12 Doses Multidrug Therapy (MDT) or the Uniform 6 Doses MDT.

Leprosy serology reflects the bacillary load of patients and multidrug therapy (MDT) reduces Mycobacterium leprae-specific antibody titers of multibacillary (MB) patients. The Clinical Trial for Uniform Multidrug Therapy Regimen for Leprosy Patients in Brazil (U-MDT/CT-BR) compared outcomes of regular 12 doses MDT/R-MDT and the uniform 6 doses MDT/U-MDT for MB leprosy, both of regimens including rifampicin, clofazimine, and dapsone. This study investigated the impact of R-MDT and U-MDT and the kinetic of antibody responses to M. leprae-specific antigens in MB patients from the U-MDT/CT-BR. We tested 3,400 serum samples from 263 MB patients (R-MDT:121; U-MDT:142) recruited at two Brazilian reference centers (Dona Libânia, Fortaleza, Ceará; Alfredo da Matta Foundation, Manaus, Amazonas). Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays with three M. leprae antigens [NT-P-BSA: trisaccharide-phenyl of phenollic glycolipid-I antigen (PGL-I); LID-1: Leprosy Infectious Disease Research Institute Diagnostic 1 di-fusion recombinant protein; and ND-O-LID: fusion complex of disaccharide-octyl of PGL-I and LID-1] were performed using around 13 samples per patient. Samples were collected at baseline/M0, during MDT (R-MDT:M1-M12 months, U-MDT:M1-M6 months) and after MDT discontinuation (first, second year). Statistical significance was assessed by the Mann-Whitney U test for comparison between groups (p values < 0.05). Mixed effect multilevel regression analyses were used to investigate intraindividual serological changes overtime. In R-MDT and U-MDT groups, males predominated, median age was 41 and 40.5 years, most patients were borderline lepromatous and lepromatous leprosy (R-MDT:88%, U-MDT: 90%). The bacilloscopic index at diagnosis was similar (medians: 3.6 in the R-MDT and 3.8 in the U-MDT group). In R-MDT and U-MDT groups, a significant decline in anti-PGL-I positivity was observed from M0 to M5 (p = 0.035, p = 0.04, respectively), from M6 to M12 and at the first and second year posttreatment (p < 0.05). Anti-LID-1 antibodies declined from M0 to M6 (p = 0.024), M7 to M12 in the R-MDT; from M0 to M4 (p = 0.003), M5 to M12 in the U-MDT and posttreatment in both groups (p > 0.0001). Anti-ND-O-LID antibodies decreased during and after treatment in both groups, similarly to anti-PGL-I antibodies. Intraindividual serology results in R-MDT and U-MDT patients showed that the difference in serology decay to all three antigens was dependent upon time only. Our serology findings in MB leprosy show that regardless of the duration of the U-MDT and R-MDT, both of them reduce M. leprae-specific antibodies during and after treatment. In leprosy, antibody levels are considered a surrogate marker of the bacillary load; therefore, our serological results suggest that shorter U-MDT is also effective in reducing the patients' bacillary burden similarly to R-MDT. Clinical Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00669643.

Phylogenomics and antimicrobial resistance of the leprosy bacillus Mycobacterium leprae.

Leprosy is a chronic human disease caused by the yet-uncultured pathogen Mycobacterium leprae. Although readily curable with multidrug therapy (MDT), over 200,000 new cases are still reported annually. Here, we obtain M. leprae genome sequences from DNA extracted directly from patients' skin biopsies using a customized protocol. Comparative and phylogenetic analysis of 154 genomes from 25 countries provides insight into evolution and antimicrobial resistance, uncovering lineages and phylogeographic trends, with the most ancestral strains linked to the Far East. In addition to known MDT-resistance mutations, we detect other mutations associated with antibiotic resistance, and retrace a potential stepwise emergence of extensive drug resistance in the pre-MDT era. Some of the previously undescribed mutations occur in genes that are apparently subject to positive selection, and two of these (ribD, fadD9) are restricted to drug-resistant strains. Finally, nonsense mutations in the nth excision repair gene are associated with greater sequence diversity and drug resistance.

Phylogenomics and antimicrobial resistance of the leprosy bacillus Mycobacterium leprae

Leprosy is a chronic human disease caused by the yet-uncultured pathogen Mycobacterium leprae. Although readily curable with multidrug therapy (MDT), over 200,000 new cases are still reported annually. Here, we obtain M. leprae genome sequences from DNA extracted directly from patients' skin biopsies using a customized protocol. Comparative and phylogenetic analysis of 154 genomes from 25 countries provides insight into evolution and antimicrobial resistance, uncovering lineages and phylogeographic trends, with the most ancestral strains linked to the Far East. In addition to known MDT-resistance mutations, we detect other mutations associated with antibiotic resistance, and retrace a potential stepwise emergence of extensive drug resistance in the pre-MDT era. Some of the previously undescribed mutations occur in genes that are apparently subject to positive selection, and two of these (ribD, fadD9) are restricted to drug-resistant strains. Finally, nonsense mutations in the nth excision repair gene are associated with greater sequence diversity and drug resistance.

Whole genome sequencing distinguishes between relapse and reinfection in recurrent leprosy cases.

BACKGROUND: Since leprosy is both treated and controlled by multidrug therapy (MDT) it is important to monitor recurrent cases for drug resistance and to distinguish between relapse and reinfection as a means of assessing therapeutic efficacy. All three objectives can be reached with single nucleotide resolution using next generation sequencing and bioinformatics analysis of Mycobacterium leprae DNA present in human skin. METHODOLOGY: DNA was isolated by means of optimized extraction and enrichment methods from samples from three recurrent cases in leprosy patients participating in an open-label, randomized, controlled clinical trial of uniform MDT in Brazil (U-MDT/CT-BR). Genome-wide sequencing of M. leprae was performed and the resultant sequence assemblies analyzed in silico. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In all three cases, no mutations responsible for resistance to rifampicin, dapsone and ofloxacin were found, thus eliminating drug resistance as a possible cause of disease recurrence. However, sequence differences were detected between the strains from the first and second disease episodes in all three patients. In one case, clear evidence was obtained for reinfection with an unrelated strain whereas in the other two cases, relapse appeared more probable. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This is the first report of using M. leprae whole genome sequencing to reveal that treated and cured leprosy patients who remain in endemic areas can be reinfected by another strain. Next generation sequencing can be applied reliably to M. leprae DNA extracted from biopsies to discriminate between cases of relapse and reinfection, thereby providing a powerful tool for evaluating different outcomes of therapeutic regimens and for following disease transmission.

Anti-PGL-1 Positivity as a Risk Marker for the Development of Leprosy among Contacts of Leprosy Cases: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: There is no point of care diagnostic test for infection with M. Leprae or for leprosy, although ELISA anti PGL-1 has been considered and sometimes used as a means to identify infection. METHODS: A systematic review of all cohort studies, which classified healthy leprosy contacts, at entry, according to anti-PGL1 positivity, and had at least one year follow up. The outcome was clinical diagnosis of leprosy by an experienced physician. The meta-analysis used a fixed model to estimated OR for the association of PGL-1 positivity and clinical leprosy. A fixed model also estimated the sensibility of PGL-1 positivity and positive predictive value. RESULTS: Contacts who were anti PGL-1 positive at baseline were 3 times as likely to develop leprosy; the proportion of cases of leprosy that were PGL-1 positive at baseline varied but was always under 50%. CONCLUSIONS: Although there is a clear and consistent association between positivity to anti PGL-1 and development of leprosy in healthy contacts, selection of contacts for prophylaxis based on anti PGL1 response would miss more than half future leprosy cases. Should chemoprophylaxis of controls be incorporated into leprosy control programmes, PGL1 appears not to be a useful test in the decision of which contacts should receive chemoprophylaxis.

Role of dermatologists in leprosy elimination and post-elimination era: the Brazilian contribution.

Dermatologists in Brazil have always been involved in care of leprosy patients, and have been alternating with public health physicians in the management of control policies. It is worth mentioning that Fernando Terra, founder of the Brazilian Society of Dermatology (BSD) in 1912, established the position of intern dermatologist at the Hospital dos Lizaros, in Rio de Janeiro, in 1913 (Souza-Araújo, 1952; Oliveira, 1991). In 1920, the dermatologist Eduardo Rabello formulated the first national public policy on the control of leprosy in the country, which was called 'Inspection of Prophylaxis of Leprosy and Venereal Diseases'. His son was an enthusiast of dermatological research and his main legacy was the polarity concept of leprosy (Rabelo, 1937). However, from 1930 to 1985, the public health physicians were in charge of the political guidelines that represented the period of establishing the vertical programmatic structure, with compulsory isolation of patients (1933-1962). Moreover, the federal states coordinated the control actions, based on the leprosy prophylaxis campaign. The dermatologists resumed the conduction of the control process in 1986, when multi-drug therapy (MDT) was implemented in the country, and in 1991, when decentralization of public healthcare services to the municipal level took place. In 2003 again, the dermatologists were no longer in control of the national policy. However, active dermatologists have acted in Brazilian references on diagnosis and treatment of Hansen's disease, at municipal, state and national levels. It is true that dermatologists have been getting away from leprosy control actions. And one could ask: who will replace this specialist? In the 'post-elimination' era, when the public primary healthcare technicians no longer consider leprosy of much significance, the knowledge of the expert in this disease and its differential diagnoses will be crucial.

Trend of case detection and leprosy elimination in Brazil.

Only six countries did not meet the leprosy elimination target during 2005, amongst them Brazil. In 2006, the Brazilian Ministry of Health announced a reduction of the detection rate of 24% or 10 900 cases from 2004 to 2005. A negative binomial parabolic regression model was adjusted to the detection rate historical series from 1980 to 2004, in order to predict the 2005 detection rate and its 95% confidence interval. This analysis showed that the number of new leprosy cases for 2005 could not be predicted from the previous behaviour of the data what calls for an epidemiological or operational explanation hypothesis. The hypothesis that this drop in detected case number is due to operational change, as a reduction in diagnosis or a modification in the reporting routine, is more likely. Recent change in prevalence case definition turned the prevalence ratio a function of only one variable, the detection rate, as the duration of the diagnosed disease became fixed. In the early nineties, based on epidemiological data evaluation, the BMoH recognized the impossibility of reaching the elimination goal, but it committed to seek leprosy control. This position changed after some years. Leprosy Elimination is a strategy supported by the national and international public opinion. As a one for all recipe, it may cause unwanted effects for it is not flexible enough to deal with different epidemiological behaviours and public health traditions.